历史洪水不确定性对洪水频率计算成果的影响
Influence of Uncertainty from Large Historical Flood Upon Frequency Analysis
作者：黄伟军(四川大学 水利水电学院，四川 成都 610065)；王文圣(四川大学 水利水电学院，四川 成都 610065)；金菊良(合肥工业大学 土木工程学院，安徽 合肥 230009)
Author：(School of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan Univ.,Chengdu 610065,China)；(School of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan Univ.,Chengdu 610065,China)；(School of Civil Eng., Hefei Univ. of Technol., Hefei 230009,China)
收稿日期：2005-08-31 年卷（期）页码：2006,38(3):13-16
期刊名称：工程科学与技术
Journal Name：Advanced Engineering Sciences
关键字：特大洪水;频率计算;统计试验
Key words：extraordinary flood (large historical flood)；frequency analysis；statistical experiment
基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40271024,50579009)；四川省科技厅软科学基金资助项目(042R025-051)
中文摘要
历史洪水在洪水频率计算中起到了重要作用。估计的历史洪水数量及其重现期均存在不确定性(与真值偏离),以统计试验法研究了不确定性对洪水频率计算成果的定量影响。结果表明：在多数情况下，即使历史洪水存在不确定性，但积极作用是主要的;在历史洪水存在不确定性情况下，以概率权重矩法估计的参数稳健性优于优化适线法。
英文摘要
Large historical flood discharges can play an important role in hydrologic frequency analysis.However their magnitude and recurrence interval must be estimated and they suffer from a serious uncertainty. Such uncertainties ought to be taken into account in frequency analysis.The study on influence of uncertainty upon frequency analysis has been conducted by using a statistical experimental method. The results indicate that although estimated magnitude and recurrence interval of large historical flood discharges are involved in uncertainties, their positive role may be significant in most cases. Moreover, under the situation of uncertainties in large historical flood, the quantities estimated by probability weighted moments may be more robust than those by a optimal curve fitting method.
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