基于进化算法的湖泊富营养化投影寻踪回归预测模型
Evolution Algorithm Based Forecasting Model for Lake Eutrophication Using PPR
作者：李祚泳(成都信息工程学院,四川 成都 610041)；汪嘉杨(成都信息工程学院,四川 成都 610041)；金相灿(中国环境科学院 湖泊生态环境创新基地, 北京 100012)
Author：(Chengdu Univ. of Info. Technol., Chengdu 610041, China)；(Chengdu Univ. of Info. Technol., Chengdu 610041, China)；(Lake Ecoenvironmental Innovation Base, Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China)
收稿日期：2006-08-21 年卷（期）页码：2007,39(2):1-8
期刊名称：工程科学与技术
Journal Name：Advanced Engineering Sciences
关键字：粒子群算法；免疫进化算法；投影寻踪；水质；富营养化；预测
Key words：particle swarm optimization; immune evolution algorithm; projection pursuit; water quality; eutrophication; forecast
基金项目：973国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目（2002CB412301）；成都信息工程学院发展基金资助项目（CSRF200401）
中文摘要
为了建立湖泊富营养化预测模型，选择了与水质富营养化关系密切的工业废水排放量、城市生活污水排放量、农业面源污染负荷比等影响因子及工业废水达标排放率、生活污水处理率等因素作为湖泊富营养化的预测建模指标，建立了基于投影寻踪回归（PPR）的富营养状态的综合指数预测模型。通过把PPR模型表示为直观的参数矩阵形式，用对参数矩阵的优化运算替代传统PPR的多重平滑回归计算技术，简化了运算。结合太湖周边社会、经济影响因子有关资料和太湖水质指标数据，采用粒子群算法(PSO)和免疫进化算法(IEA)对模型中的参数进行优化，得到优化后适用于太湖富营养化综合指数的PPR预测模型。对太湖未来的富营养状态发展趋势进行了预测，结果表明，若不加大治理力度，未来5～30年内太湖富营养化有逐渐加重趋势，因而提出了防治太湖富营养化进一步恶化的调控方案，可为太湖水质富营养化的治理和决策提供参考依据。
英文摘要
A projects pursuit regression (PPR) forecasting model of comprehensive indexes for water eutrophication trends was proposed by choosing several relative indexes such as industrial wastewater drainage amount, city sewage drainage amount, industrial wastewater drainage rate up to par, and sewage disposal rate. Through expressing the model as parameter matrix and optimizing the parameter matrix to substitute the conventional smooth multiple additive regression technique, PPR was simple to use. Data relative to society and economy of Taihu Lake basin and water quality of Taihu Lake were used in the model. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) and immune evolution algorithm (IEA) were used for optimizing the parameters in model. The optimized PPR model was used for forecasting the lake eutrophication trends of Taihu Lake in future. Results showed that water quality of Taihu lake will gradually aggravate in future 5～30 years unless more administration or measure will be taken to reduce the pollution. Several regulate projects were put forward in order to simulate the acceptable mode to prevent and harness the eutrophication, which provides the suggestion to guide prevention and administration of lake eutrophication.
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