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论文摘要

土体冲刷参数与常规土性参数的统计规律

Statistical relationship between the erodibility parameters and the soil physical properties

作者:王秋生(北京工业大学);樊俊杰(北京工业大学);王心愿(北京工业大学);李维朝(北京工业大学)

Author:wangqiusheng(Beijing University of Technology);(Beijing University of Technology);(Beijing University of Technology);liweichao(Beijing University of Technology)

收稿日期:2020-04-29          年卷(期)页码:2020,52(6):-

期刊名称:工程科学与技术

Journal Name:Advanced Engineering Sciences

关键字:冲刷参数;堰塞体;相关分析;回归分析;应急处置

Key words:erodibility parameters; landslide dam; correlation analysis; regression analysis; emergency action

基金项目:国家重点研发计划“青藏高原重大滑坡动力灾变与风险防控关键技术研究”课题五“重大滑坡灾害全过程控制关键技术”(2018YFC1505005);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51679003)

中文摘要

快速确定堰塞体冲刷模型参数是堰塞湖应急处置中溃决洪水评估的前提。当前通常使用剪应力模型和Wilson模型来预测土体的冲刷速率,但是对模型参数的取值范围尚没有统一认识。为研究两种模型冲刷参数与常规土性参数的关系和各类土体冲刷参数的范围,快速确定堰塞体冲刷模型参数,本文共收集了279组冲刷试验数据,并根据土的统一分类系统(Unified Soil Classification System)将数据分为粗、细颗粒土两类,然后通过相关分析和回归分析得出了冲刷参数与常规土性参数的关系式,并根据关系式的拟合优度(R2、MSE)、可信度(Fvalue/Fstatistic)和泛化能力(10折交叉检验)进行筛选,得出了粗、细颗粒土冲刷参数与常规土性参数的回归方程,并对比试验数据得到的冲刷参数与回归方程预测得到的冲刷参数,得出了不同土料的冲刷参数范围。最后以白格堰塞体为例,依据本研究建立的冲刷参数数据库及统计关系,对其冲刷参数和冲刷速率进行了分析。结果表明,本研究成果可以用以快速确定堰塞体的冲刷参数,为应急处置条件下快速评估溃决洪水风险提供技术支持和数据支撑。

英文摘要

Rapid determination of erosion model parameters is the premise of the evaluation of the burst flood in the emergency treatment of the barrier lake. The erosion rate was typically modeled with excess shear stress model and Wilson model. However, there is no unified understanding of the range of erodibility parameters. In order to study the relationship between the erodibility parameters of two models and soil properties and the range of erodibility parameters of various types of soils, quickly determine the erodibility parameters of the dam, a database of 279 test results were collected from the literature review as well as by contacting researchers and organizations working on erosion around the world in this paper. The samples were classified into coarse-grained and fine-grained soils according to the USCS. Correlation analysis and regression analysis of the data were used to obtain the relationship between the erodibility parameters and soil properties. Four measures were used to evaluate the statistical significance of the relationship between erodibility parameters and soil parameters for coarse-grained and fine-grained soils:R2、MSE、Fvalue/Fstatistic and Cross-validation. The erodibility parameters obtained from the experimental data were compared with the erodibility parameters predicted by the regression equation, the range of erosion parameters of different soil was obtained. Finally, taking Baige weir plug as an example, according to the erosion parameter database and statistical relationship established in this study, the erosion parameters and erosion rate were analyzed rapidly. The results show that this study can quickly determine the erosion parameters of the dam plug body, and provide help for rapid assessment of the risk of burst flood under emergency conditions.

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