基于二元极限理论的流域洪水资源利用现状与潜力分析
Analysis of Current and Potential Flood Resources Utilization in Basin Based on Bivariate Limit Theory
作者：李晓英(河海大学 水利水电学院，江苏 南京 210098)；郑浩然(河海大学 水利水电学院，江苏 南京 210098)；吴淑君(河海大学 水利水电学院，江苏 南京 210098)；娄健(河海大学 能源与电气学院，江苏 南京 210098)
Author：LI Xiaoying(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China)；ZHENG Haoran(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China)；WU Shujun(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China)；LOU Jian(College of Energy and Electrical Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China)
收稿日期：2019-05-10 年卷（期）页码：2020,52(2):70-77
期刊名称：工程科学与技术
Journal Name：Advanced Engineering Sciences
关键字：洪水资源可利用量;洪水资源利用潜力;下游生态需水量;二元极限理论;淮河流域
Key words：utilizable flood resources quantity;flood resources utilization potential;downstream ecological water demand;bivariate limit theory;Huaihe basin
基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0400909）
中文摘要
为协调流域洪水资源利用与洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量两个约束之间的关系，在现有研究的基础上，进一步提出基于二元极限理论的流域洪水资源利用现状与潜力分析方法：1）认为洪水资源可利用量是洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量的函数；2）认为洪水资源利用潜力也是洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量的函数。对其概念和方法进行阐述，并通过二元极限理论分析两个因变量和两个自变量之间的关系。以淮河流域吴家渡水文站以上区域为例计算相关指标，结果表明：1956—2016年区域平均洪水资源利用率为24.7%，利用率波动幅度较大，但是随着时间的发展，整体趋势在不断提高。平均现状可利用量和理论可利用量分别为72.4×108 m3和183.53×108 m3，平均现状利用潜力和理论利用潜力分别为34.76×108 m3和145.89×108 m3。说明吴家渡以上区域，现状条件下存在大量洪水资源待开发利用，理论条件下更多。洪水资源调控利用能力每增加20×108 m3，洪水资源可利用量增加15×108 m3，利用潜力增加16×108 m3；下游生态需水量每增加20×108 m3，洪水资源可利用量减少5×108 m3，利用潜力减少3×108 m3。说明洪水资源可利用量和利用潜力主要受洪水资源调控利用能力约束，提高调控利用能力是提高该区域洪水资源利用水平的关键。通过二元极限理论分析流域洪水资源利用现状和利用潜力，可以为洪水研究和流域管理提供参考。
英文摘要
In order to coordinate the relationship among utilization of flood resources, flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand, a bivariate limit theory is proposed to evaluate the current and potential of flood resources utilization:1) Utilizable flood resources quantity is considered as a function of flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand; 2) Flood resources utilization potential is considered as a function of flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand. The concept and methods are introduced and the related indexes of the area above Wujiadu hydrological station in Huaihe River basin are calculated. The results show that during 1956-2016 the average utilization rate of flood resources was 24.7%. Although the utilization rate fluctuated greatly, the overall trend is constantly increased. The current and theoretical availability were 72.4×108m3and 183.53×108m3respectively. The current and theoretical utilization potential were 34.76×108m3and 145.89×108m3respectively. It shows that under the current conditions, there is a great amount of flood resources that can be exploited and under the ideal conditions there can be more. For every increase of 20×108m3of flood control capacity, the utilizable flood resources quantity could increase 15×108m3and the flood resources utilization potentiality could increase 16×108m3. For every increase of 20×108m3of downstream ecological water demand, the utilizable flood resources quantity could reduce 5×108m3and the flood resources utilization potentiality could reduce 3×108m3. It shows that utilizable flood resources quantity and flood resources utilization potentiality are mainly controlled by flood control capacity. Improving flood control capacity is the key to increase the utilization level of flood resources in this region. The method to evaluate the current and potential of flood resources utilization by bivariate limit theory can provide reference for flood research and basin management organization.
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