基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估
Long-term Projection of Surface Runoff in the Fu River Basin Based on Water-energy Balance
作者：袁喆(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)；许继军(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)；王永强(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)；洪晓峰(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)；周彦辰(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)；陈进(长江水利委员会 长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010)
Author：YUAN Zhe(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)；XU Jijun(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)；WANG Yongqiang(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)；HONG Xiaofeng(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)；ZHOU Yanchen(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)；CHEN Jin(Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China)
收稿日期：2017-10-10 年卷（期）页码：2019,51(1):60-67
期刊名称：工程科学与技术
Journal Name：Advanced Engineering Sciences
关键字：气候变化;地表径流;水热平衡;抚河流域
Key words：climate change;surface runoff;water-energy;Fu River basin
基金项目：国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0403600；2017YFC0403606；2016YFC0502201）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779013；51709008）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目资助（CKSF2017057/SZ；CKSF2017029/SZ）
中文摘要
预估气候变化背景下流域地表径流的变化是水资源合理开发与利用的前提。以抚河流域为研究区，从地表径流形成的宏观机理出发，基于水热平衡构建可描述大尺度上气候要素、下垫面要素和地表径流3者之间定量关系的流域尺度水文模型。结合假定的气候变化情况和CMIP5气候变化预估成果，评估抚河流域对气候变化的敏感性，并预估2020-2050年期间抚河流域地表径流的变化。结果表明：1）所构建的抚河流域水热平衡模型对年尺度径流模拟效果较好，且模型参数少，计算简单。2）抚河流域对气候变化敏感性相对较低，气温每升高1.0 ℃，地表径流减少3.6%～6.3%；降水每增加1%，地表径流增加1.7%～1.9%。3）未来抚河流域表现出增温的特点，2020-2050年多年平均气温相对于1961-1990年增加1.1～2.6 ℃，多年平均降水量的变化存在较大不确定性。在不考虑与其他模式差别较大的GFDL-ESM2M条件下，未来地表径流将减少10%～11%。
英文摘要
The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study conducted a case study in Fu River basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantitative relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset provided by CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the Fu River basin can be addressed. The results showed that:1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study uses fewer parameters and has simpler calculation methods, which was good at simulating annual surface runoff. 2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the Fu River basin, i.e., the increase of only 1℃ in temperature might result in a surface runoff decrease of 3.6% to 6.3% and a 1% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 1.7% to 1.9%. 3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin was projected to increase by 1.1 to 2.6 from 2020 to 2050, as compared to that from 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was expected to decrease by 10% to 11% without considering the climate change projected by GFDL-ESM2M, which was much different from those predicted by other GCMs.
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