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论文摘要

南水北调西线调水区与受水区年径流量丰、枯相关性集对分析

Correlation analysis of encountering probability of runoff in the water-exporting and water-importing area of western route of south-to-north water transfer project by SPA

作者:殷彤(四川大学水利水电学院);黄晓荣(四川大学水利水电学院);文雯(成都市双流县环境保护局)

Author:yintong();huangxiaorong();wenwen()

收稿日期:2008-07-02          年卷(期)页码:2009,41(2):48-52

期刊名称:工程科学与技术

Journal Name:Advanced Engineering Sciences

关键字:南水北调西线工程 ;集对分析 ;丰枯遭遇

Key words:western route of south-to-north water transfer project; Set Pair Analysis; runoff encountering analysis

基金项目:国家重点实验室(水利部江湖治理与防洪重点实验室开发研究基金项目 R2007-13)

中文摘要

通过对南水北调调水区与受水区年径流量丰、枯相关性集对分析,用同异反代表丰平枯来定量刻画不同径流系列之间的关系。结果清晰显示集合之间的关系结构。受水区与调水区年径流丰、枯并有一定同步性,但不完全一致,存在着10年以上和3年准周期。调水区和受水区各自内部水文站丰、枯同步性较好。为了做到水资源合理调丰补欠以及减少由于调水对调水下游段带来的不利影响,在受水区及调水区下段适当位置应设置调节性水库。实证表明集对分析是处理不确定性问题的一种有效的新方法。

英文摘要

The correlation of wet and dry year of runoff between the water-exporting and water-importing area of western route south-to-north water transfer project was analyzed by SPA ,with description of identical, discrepancy and contrary to wet, normal and dry year. The results showed the connected structure is reasonable between sets and more than ten years’ cycle and quqsi-3 years cycle of runoff exist in the water-exporting and water-importing area . Each hydrological station among water-exporting and water-importing area keeped close correlation with wet, normal and dry year respectively. Adjustment reservoirs will be laid out in somewhere of water-exporting and water-importing area in order to rationally reserve abundant water and reduce unfavorable impact on lower reaches of the water-exporting rivers. Set Pair Analysis ( SPA) is an effective and new way to deal with the uncertainty problem.

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