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论文摘要

基于纳什-古诺均衡和Chatterjee-Samuelson 议价模型的梯级水库水调决策研究

Study on the Operation Decision of Cascade Reservoirs Based on Nash Cournot Equilibrium and Chatterjee Samuelson Bargaining Model

作者:陈明千(四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610065);李嘉(四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610065);安瑞冬(四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610065)

Author:(State Key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065,China);(State Key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065,China);(State Key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065,China)

收稿日期:2008-01-09          年卷(期)页码:2009,41(2):42-47

期刊名称:工程科学与技术

Journal Name:Advanced Engineering Sciences

关键字:水调决策;博奕论;均衡;贝叶斯博弈;梯级

Key words:operation decision;game theory;equilibrium;Bayesian game;cascade

基金项目:教育部博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20040610040 )

中文摘要

水库具有调节能力,其调度方式受供水需求及发电计划等诸多因素影响而属于多目标决策问题。通过对博弈论中关于纳什-古诺均衡和贝叶斯博弈条件下的Chatterjee Samuelson议价模型研究,建立了流域梯级水库的水调决策模型。同时针对梯级水库在掌握其他决策者信息量不同的情况,分别建立决策的静态和动态博弈模型进行针对性研究。将模型应用于四川岷江某水利枢纽水调决策的研究,表明其可以对梯级电站的决策行为进行分析和模拟,从而降低决策风险,增强流域调度的均衡性,优化经营策略。

英文摘要

The Operation of Reservoir was affected by water supply demand, power generation and other factors because of its regulation ability. Such operation behavior belongs to multiple objective decision. Based on the study of Nash Cournot equilibrium and Chatterjee and Samuelson bargaining model which was on the Bayesian game situation in game theory, an operation decision model of cascade reservoirs had been established. Because of the different information content received by the decision maker, the model also established static and dynamic game program model to do such research. This model was applied in the operation decision study of a hydro junction in Minjiang River, Sichuan. The study indicated that the model can analyze and simulate the activity of cascade reservoirs operation. It aims to the decision of risk reduction, basin operation equilibrium and management tactics’ optimization.

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