高心墙堆石坝施工期变形时空预测模型研究
Research on the Prediction Model of Deformation of High Core Rockfill Dam During Construction Period
作者：卢祥(四川大学 水利水电学院, 四川 成都 610065)；吴震宇(四川大学 水利水电学院, 四川 成都 610065)；周正军(中国电建集团 成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川 成都 610072)；陈建康(四川大学 水利水电学院, 四川 成都 610065)
Author：LU Xiang(College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)；WU Zhenyu(College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)；ZHOU Zhengjun(Chengdu Eng. Corp. Ltd., PowerChina, Chengdu 610072, China)；CHEN Jiankang(College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)
收稿日期：2016-12-08 年卷（期）页码：2017,49(4):61-69
期刊名称：工程科学与技术
Journal Name：Advanced Engineering Sciences
关键字：高心墙堆石坝;物理成因分析;空间拓展;克里金插值;时空预测
Key words：high core rockfill dam;physical causes;spatial expansion;kriging interpolation;space-time deformation
基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（51109151）
中文摘要
针对高心墙堆石坝变形监测断面有限，传统的单点变形预测模型难以有效反映坝体整体变形趋势的特点，通过采用分离型时空模型的构建方式，以及基于物理成因分析的单点变形拟合和空间拓展的思路构建施工期变形时空预测模型，能够克服单点序列模型的某些缺点。基于现有的粗粒土变形计算理论，推导并建立坝体垂直、水平变形单点物理成因模型，在单点物理成因模型的基础上采用克里金空间插值技术进行空间拓展，构建高心墙堆石坝变形时空预测模型。经瀑布沟高心墙堆石坝坝体原观变形资料分析表明，垂直、水平位移物理成因模型和空间插值模型能较好地模拟和反映测点变形趋势，精度较高。模型实现了基于监测序列的高心墙堆石坝整体变形的3维预测，较好地描述了大坝3维变形趋势，对相关工程具有一定的应用和推广价值。
英文摘要
In the situation that deformation monitoring section of high rockfill dam is limited,and the traditional single point deformation prediction model is difficult to reflect the overall trend of dam deformation effectively,the separation space-time deformation prediction model constructed by single-point sequence fitting and spatial expansion during construction can overcome some drawbacks of single point series models.The vertical and horizontal single point deformation model of physical causes was derived and established based on the existing theory of coarse grained soil deformation calculation,and then the space-time deformation prediction model of high rockfill dam was constructed by using kriging technique for spatial expansion based on single point model.The primary deformation datas analysis results of Pubugou high rockfill dam showed that the vertical,horizontal deformation model and spatial interpolation model of physical causes can simulate and reflect the measuring point distortion tendency well with a high precision.The model can realize three dimensional prediction according to the monitoring sequence of the whole deformation of high core rockfill dam,describes the dam three dimensional distortion tendency well,and has a certain application and promoted value to related projects.
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