ObjectiveTo explore the application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in forecasting the clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cells in Chengdu.
MethodsThe monthly clinical supply data (n=108) of irradiated suspended red blood cells in Chengdu Blood Center from January 2010 to December 2019 were selected as subjects. Among them, the monthly clinical supply data (n=102) of irradiated suspended red blood cells from January 2010 to June 2019 were used for ARIMA model fitting; and the data (n=6) from July to December 2019 were used to verify the predictive effect of ARIMA model established in this study. The predictive amount predicted through ARIMA model and actual amount of monthly clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cells in Chengdu Blood Center from July to December 2019, were compared for further verifying the ARIMA model. Eviews9.0 statistical analysis software was used to fit, estimate and diagnose the ARIMA model.
Results① Base on the monthly clinical supply data of irradiated suspended red blood cells in Chengdu Blood Center from January 2010 to June 2019, the time series model was ARIMA(3, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)12. The ARIMA model fitted well to the monthly clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cells in Chengdu Blood Center [AR(1)=-0.848,t=-4.340,P<0 .001; mr(1)="-0.474,t=2.006,P=0.048; MR(2)=-0.369,t=-2.723,P=0.008], and the residual sequence was white noise (Q=22.24,P=0.163). ② The relative error between the predictive amount which predicted by the ARIMA(3, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)12model, and the actual amount of monthly clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cells in the Chengdu Blood Center from July to December 2019, were 5.02%, 0.34%, 4.98%, 0.48%, 1.26% and 2.07%, respectively. And the average relative error was 2.36%.
ConclusionsThe ARIMA (3, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)12model was well fit for the changing trend of clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cell in Chengdu Blood Center.This model is suitable for the forecasting of short-term clinical supply of irradiated suspended red blood cells, which could provide a basis for inventory management of irradiated suspended red blood cells in blood collection and supply institutions.
